The odds of President Joe Biden being on the Democratic presidential ticket in two years are shortening on reports that the 79-year-old commander-in-chief told his former boss that he plans to seek a second term.
Political news outlet The Hill reported yesterday that Biden recently told former President Barack Obama that he will run again in 2024. The rumors also suggest that Biden is eager to run against former President Donald Trump for a second time.
Biden wants to run and he’s clearly letting everyone know,” a source close to the Biden-Obama conversation told The Hill. “I believe he thinks he’s the only one who can beat Trump. I don’t think he thinks there’s anyone in the Democratic Party who can beat Trump and that’s the biggest factor.”
PredictIt bettors were partially won over with the report. The political betting exchange’s market asking, “Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?” saw Biden’s shares climb two cents on the news.
Biden has a 39% chance of running on his party’s ticket in 2024. Sitting Vice President Kamala Harris is a distant second at 19 cents, and US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg third at 12 cents.
2024 Race Forming
There are 931 days remaining until the November 5, 2024, presidential election. But it’s shaping up to be a rematch between Biden and Trump.
PredictIt’s Republican ticket market gives Trump the same 39% chance of winning his party’s nomination. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, however, is much closer, as his shares of being the GOP 2024 nominee are trading at 30 cents.
The current 2024 odds suggest a Biden-Trump rematch is the likeliest scenario. As for the winner, political bettors like Trump.
“Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” has the 45th president the front-runner at 29 cents. DeSantis and Biden are tied at second at 23 cents. Harris is fourth at 10 cents and Buttigieg fifth at just a nickel.
Legal sportsbooks in the US remain barred from offering political betting lines. But UK books have long been permitted to take political bets. Leading books like William Hill, Paddy Power, Bet365, and Sky Bet all have Trump the favorite at 3/1. Biden and DeSantis are next at 5/1.
Polls at Odds with Political Bettors
Biden managed to trump Trump in the 2020 presidential election, but 2024 might present a more difficult triumph for the current president. Real Clear Politics reports that Biden’s consensus job approval rating stands at just 41%.
Nearly 52% of likely US voters said they disapprove of Biden’s job performance during his first 14 months in office. Trump also faced poor job approval ratings during his presidency. Trump’s consensus job approval rating was 44% prior to the November 2020 election. By comparison, Obama’s approval rating was almost 49% prior to his 2012 reelection.
However, as for a hypothetical Biden vs. Trump 2024 matchup, the RCP polling average gives Biden a 4.5-point advantage. None of the 13 recent head-to-head polls conducted since October have Trump with an advantage.
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