Three weeks into the NFL season, we’ve tracked the point totals for the first 48 games. The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers are the top six “Under’ teams in the NFL. They all have 3-0 records if you’ve been betting the under points total in their games.
Points have been tough to come by in the NFL this season. If you’ve been betting NFL totals, the under points have successfully hit in 30 of the 48 games played. The under is 30-18 overall for a 62.5% success rate.
NFL O/U Points Total – Best Under Record
- Denver Broncos 3-0
- Indianapolis Colts 3-0
- Cincinnati Bengals 3-0
- Tampa Bay Bucs 3-0
- San Francisco 49ers 3-0
- Green Bay Packers 3-0
If you prefer to bet the over points in games, the Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, and Cleveland Browns are the best “Over” teams in the NFL this season, all with a 3-0 record.
Indianapolis Colts: Can’t Buy a Point
The Colts are the lowest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging only 13.3 points per game. After scoring 20 points in the season opener in a tie game against the Houston Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars shut out the Colts 24-0 in Week 2. Last week, the Colts upset the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 for their first win of the season.
The Colts (1-1-1) meet the Tennessee Titans (1-2) in Week 2. The Colts are a -4 favorite in this AFC South battle, and the current total is 43.
Denver Broncos: Stellar D, Meh Offense
The Broncos are the second-lowest scoring team in the league, averaging 14.3 points per game, yet have a 2-1 record, thanks to the second-best scoring defense that allows only 12 points. If you prefer advanced metrics, Denver’s defense is ranked #5 in defensive DOVA this season by Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Russell Wilson is still figuring out the new offense. But at least the team did a better job calling in plays much quicker to avoid delay of game penalties.
The Broncos (2-1) visit Sin City to play the desperate Las Vegas Raiders (0-3). New head coach Josh McDaniel has yet to win a game through the first three weeks. The Raiders are -3 favorites, and the total is 45.5 o/u.
Cincinnati Bengals: Super Bowl Bias
The Bengals are the highest-scoring squad (21.3 ppg) among these six premier under teams. But they’re only tied for 10th in total points scored.
The Bengals lost to the LA Rams in the Super Bowl last year. But they got hot in the playoffs, thanks to Joe Burrow and their high-octane offense. The public’s perception is that the Bengals are the same high-scoring squad as last season with a bad defense, which is why the under points hit in the first three games of the season.
They haven’t put up huge scoring numbers, aside from 27 points last week against the lowly New York Jets for their first win of the season. The Bengals have a below-average defense that allows 18.3 points per game. But it’s better than last season.
The undefeated Miami Dolphins (3-0) visit the Bengals (1-2) on a short week on Thursday Night Football. The Bengals are a -3.5 favorite tonight, and the point total is 48.5 o/u. The Dolphins also have the best overall betting record with a 3-0 clip against the spread. They’re coming off a brutal and exhausting game in 100-degree weather against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Bucs: #1 Ranked D
The Bucs average only 17 points per game this season, which puts them just outside the top-10 lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. On the other hand, the Bucs boast the top defense in the league, allowing just 27 total points this season, or an average of 9.0 ppg.
The offensive line has been decimated with injuries, and Tom Brady doesn’t have his best wide receivers in the lineup this September. The offense has struggled, but their clamp-down defense helped them start out 2-1. Todd Bowles’ defense allowed just three points in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 2, the Saints scored just 10 points in a loss.
The Bucs (2-1) will face their toughest challenge so far this season against the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) on Sunday Night Football. The game is scheduled to take place in Tampa. But the NFL has a backup plan to play the game in Minneapolis if the Bucs are unable to host the game at Raymond James Stadium because of the fallout from Hurricane Ian.
The total for the Bucs/Chiefs is currently 45.5 o/u, with the Bucs’ tasked with slowing down Patrick Mahomes. The under is 2-1 for the Chiefs this season.
San Francisco 49ers: Top 3 D, Can’t Score
It makes sense why the 49ers are 3-0 if you’ve been betting their under points this season. That’s because they’re led by a top-three defense, and their offense struggled after quarterback Trey Lance got injured in the second game of the season.
The 49ers are the fifth-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.6 points per game. They have a top-notch defense that allows only 12.3 points per game, the third-best scoring defense in the NFL. They’re also ranked #3 in defensive DVOA.
The L.A. Rams (2-1) visit the 49ers (1-2) in Week 4 on Monday Night Football. These NFC West divisional battles are typically close games. The Rams (2-1) opened as +2.5 road underdogs, but the line dropped one point. The total is 42.5 o/u, and the Rams are 2-1 for under bettors this season.
Green Bay Packers: Sixes
Even with noted gunslinger Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are the sixth-lowest scoring team in the NFL, averaging just 16 points per game. He’s still figuring out who can replace Davante Adams, who headed to the Raiders in the off-season. Rookie Romeo Doubs looks like he gained Rodgers’ trust, but the offense is still getting fine-tuned.
The Packers have the six-best scoring defense, allowing only 15 points per game. They held the Chicago Bears to 10 points in Week 2, and held the Tampa Bay Bucs to 12 points in last week’s victory.
The Packers (2-1) host the New England Patriots (1-2) in Week 4. Quarterback Mac Jones is nursing a high-ankle sprain, and he’s not expected to play for the Patriots. The Packers are -9.5 favorites, but the total sunk to 40.5 o/u on the news that backup quarterback Brian Hoyer is expected to start in place of Jones.
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